Somalia stands at a critical juncture as it transitions from a clan-based power-sharing system to a direct electoral framework. Initiated during the National Consultative Council (NCC) meeting in May 2023, this shift was formalized through the contested constitutional amendments in March 2024. These amendments introduced a three-party political system and established direct elections at the district, state, and federal levels, marking a significant departure from the entrenched 4.5 clan-based model that has shaped Somali politics for decades.

While these changes aim to foster greater political inclusivity and are framed as a response to democratic demands, the reforms face significant challenges. The National Electoral Bill, introduced in July 2024 alongside other legislative initiatives, seeks to establish a more participatory political environment. However, deeply entrenched clan loyalties and existing power dynamics present substantial obstacles. Furthermore, unresolved disputes over district boundaries, ambiguity surrounding the proposed 70-30 rule for clan representation, and inconsistencies between the electoral reforms and Somalia’s provisional constitution pose additional complications.

The rapid pace of the reforms has also sparked resistance from key political figures, including former presidents, prime ministers, and federal member states like Puntland, raising concerns about potential disruptions to the fragile balance that has preserved relative peace. Our September analytical briefing explores the political, structural, and security dimensions of Somalia’s electoral reforms and assesses their prospects and implications for the country’s future governance.