Making sense ofcomplex environmentsthrough data &structuredanalysis
We are a political, governance, and risk research and analytics firm that combines original data with field grounded analysis to understand how power, incentives, and institutions shape outcomes in fragile and volatile settings. We anchor data in local realities to reveal the patterns that drive stability and change, and the risks that conventional indicators fail to capture.
A Fragile Order Unsettled in South West State
An unresolved leadership dispute, deteriorating federal-state relations, and emerging armed mobilization are increasing the risk of conflict in South West State.
Containment at Risk: Modeling the Impact of Ethiopian Forces’ Withdrawal from Somalia
Model-based analysis reveals that the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces would leave critical districts in South West State and Jubaland at near-total risk of militant control.
A Path to Direct Elections: Analyzing Somalia's Electoral Bill Against Political Realities
Somalia stands at a critical juncture as it transitions from a clan-based power-sharing system to a direct electoral framework. The rapid pace of the reforms has sparked resistance from key political figures.
Research and analyticsfor complex settings.
GLAFPOL is a research and analytics firm that helps institutions understand political, governance, and risk dynamics in complex environments. We produce original research, field-grounded analysis, and structured data products that support policy, programming, strategy, and decision-making.
We focus on contexts where reliable information is often limited or disconnected from local realities. We combine field access, local knowledge, structured research, and data analysis to close that gap, helping institutions assess context, test assumptions, and make decisions from a stronger evidentiary base.
We support governments, donors, international organizations, and implementing partners by producing better evidence, sharpening strategic understanding, and informing responses that are grounded in the realities of the places where they work.
Original data.Local evidence.Applied analysis.
We generate evidence where reliable information is thin
In places where information is limited, uneven, or difficult to verify, we use field networks, surveys, interviews, contextual monitoring, and structured data collection to ground analysis in local realities. This allows us to produce research that is methodologically structured, contextually informed, and strong enough to support institutional decision-making.
We connect data to context
We do not treat data as self-explanatory. We utilize quantitative methods, geospatial analysis, political economy assessment, and contextual knowledge to interpret patterns, explain variation, and identify what the evidence means for policy, programming, and risk.
We make analysis usable
Our work helps institutions apply evidence to the decisions they need to make. We test assumptions, clarify what is changing, and translate analysis into insight that can inform policy, programming, strategy, and risk management.
A new framework for assessing political stability across Somalia.
The Somali Stability Index assesses political stability across Somalia’s Federal Member States and Banadir by examining how authority is organized, contested, and sustained. Using public survey data, elite interviews, structured context monitoring, and comparative scoring, it shows where governing arrangements are holding, where pressure is building, and why stability varies across the federal system.