A Fragile Order Unsettled: Federal-State Rupture Raises Conflict Risks in South West State
An unresolved leadership dispute, deteriorating federal-state relations, and emerging armed mobilization are increasing the risk of conflict in South West State. While political competition has remained largely contained since 2022, recent clashes and the rupture between Baidoa and Mogadishu suggest that these constraints are weakening, raising the likelihood of more direct and sustained confrontation.
Somalia faces a growing risk of broader political and security instability as tensions between the federal government and multiple Federal Member States deepen. Since 2024, Puntland and Jubaland have suspended cooperation with the federal government, and South West State has now followed, marking the first time that this level of rupture has extended across multiple states.
In South West, that broader shift intersects with a leadership dispute that has remained unresolved since 2022. For much of that period, competition remained contained despite repeated tensions, as the governing coalition retained the political backing and security architecture needed to project authority. That arrangement is now coming under greater strain. Clashes in and around Baidoa, expanding militia mobilization, and the breakdown in relations between Baidoa and Mogadishu suggest that the conditions that had previously kept competition contained are weakening.
Drawing on forthcoming findings from the Somali Stability Index, this briefing situates recent developments in South West within the underlying dynamics of authority, enforcement, and political competition that shape stability across Somalia. It shows how shifts in federal alignment, perceptions of authority, and emerging armed mobilization are reshaping incentives on the ground, allowing pressures that were previously contained to intensify and interact. While instability remains localized in the immediate term, these dynamics increase the likelihood that confrontation becomes more sustained and consequential.
This briefing is part of the Stability Index Brief series, which provides targeted, data-driven assessments of emerging political developments and evolving conflict risks across Somalia’s Federal Member States. The Somali Stability Index draws on survey data from over 2,400 respondents, 240 interviews with political elites and traditional leaders across five Federal Member States and Banaadir, and ongoing context monitoring to analyze how political, security, and economic dynamics interact to shape stability and conflict risk across Somalia.