Somali
Stability Index2026

Somalia is entering a period of heightened political uncertainty. Federal relations remain strained, electoral disagreements continue to shape national politics, and debates over constitutional change, representation, and governance have intensified across the country. These developments are reshaping political relations across the federal system and raising broader questions about Somalia’s political trajectory and stability. Yet despite the significance of these shifts, there remain limited tools for assessing the political and governance conditions shaping stability in Somalia, including where political pressures are accumulating, how authority is being contested, and where important vulnerabilities may be emerging.

The Somali Stability Index was developed to help address that gap.

Produced by GLAFPOL, the Somali Stability Index is a new analytical, data-driven diagnostic framework examining the political, governance, and societal conditions shaping stability across Somalia. Drawing on more than 2,400 public surveys, 240 elite and traditional elder interviews, contextual monitoring, and statistical analysis, the Index provides one of the most detailed comparative assessments of Somalia’s federal political landscape produced to date.

The inaugural 2026 edition examines elite cohesion, enforcement capacity, resource control and rent flows, political legitimacy, and federal anchoring across Puntland, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, South West State, Jubaland, and Banadir. Combining state-level assessment with national analysis, the report identifies how political pressures, governance dynamics, and tensions across the federal system are shaping broader patterns of stability and vulnerability in Somalia.

To mark the launch of the inaugural 2026 Somali Stability Index, GLAFPOL will host an online launch event presenting the report’s major findings, followed by a moderated panel discussion on Somalia’s current political trajectory and the implications for stability across the federal system.