FRAGILITY CENTERED.
GLAFPOL is a research and analytical firm based in East Africa and the Horn of Africa, delivering data-driven, locally sourced insights that help organizations and governments navigate the complexities of fragile and conflict-affected environments.
Our work is rooted in a fragility-centered approach, conducting research that spans governance, security, humanitarian challenges, and the critical links between environmental issues and development outcomes. Our team of local researchers, with extensive networks and access to remote, hard-to-reach areas, works under the guidance of experienced professionals in research and data science. This approach ensures that our research and data is analyzed, contextualized, and translated into insights firmly grounded in real-world conditions, precisely tailored to meet our clients' unique needs.
Our services range from field-based data collection and primary research to in-depth analysis of political, conflict, security, and humanitarian developments, with advanced predictive analytics to forecast trends and anticipate emerging risks.
RESEARCH IN FRAGILE-CONTEXTS
We conduct research and analysis in fragile settings where political instability, weak governance, and humanitarian crises converge to create cycles of protracted uncertainty. Fragility is not merely a symptom of conflict or governance failure—it fuels insecurity, erodes institutions, and amplifies vulnerabilities across political, social, and environmental systems. These dynamics reinforce one another: governance struggles to restore order, humanitarian needs exceed capacity, and insecurity disrupts recovery, deepening fragility over time.
Our research framework is both context-driven and adaptive. We recognize that fragile settings cannot be understood through static indicators or generic models. Instead, we analyze how political authority, elite interests, conflict dynamics, and socio-economic pressures intersect and evolve over time. This approach enables us to identify emerging risks, trace how power is contested, and understand how internal and external forces shape long-term trajectories. It is a framework built not only to explain the present, but to anticipate what may come next.
We integrate granular, locally sourced knowledge with innovative analytical methodologies to produce research that is both rigorous and attuned to local realities. Our teams draw on extensive on-the-ground networks, historical knowledge, and structured field data to build a layered understanding of fragile and fast-changing environments. Through this blend of qualitative and quantitative analysis, we go beyond documenting events—we identify patterns, interpret transitions, and deliver the depth of analysis needed to inform decisions in high-risk, rapidly evolving contexts.
DATA DRIVEN INSIGHTS
We take a data-driven approach to understanding political, security, and social developments in fragile environments. Our research framework integrates multiple sources to construct a comprehensive and nuanced picture of these complex settings. We conduct in-depth qualitative interviews with political elites and community members, systematically collect data on security and political incidents, and run large-scale surveys to capture local perspectives.
Our analytical dashboard serves as a central platform for monitoring political, social, and security events, maintaining detailed records of security incidents, governance shifts, and socio-political developments with data dating back to 2020. This structured, continuously updated system enhances our ability to identify emerging patterns and contextualize developments within broader trends. To enhance our analysis, we incorporate quantitative models and advanced data techniques, including machine learning, to assess risks, identify opportunities, and deliver data-driven findings.
This integrated approach—combining local expertise, advanced data analysis, and contextual interpretation—ensures that insights remain grounded in evidence, responsive to evolving conditions, and attuned to the complexities of fragile environments.
GLAFPOL exists and thrives because of our people.
Our core team, spread across the U.S. and East Africa, is supported by a network of consultant field researchers and local partners.
Embracing a mentality of doing things differently, we emphasize partnerships and a start-up spirit, ensuring that every employee, consultant, and intern is, first and foremost, a researcher and an analyst.
